Published academic papers

Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults

L A Parsons et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Health4 015013

Extreme heat's present and future

I'd like to understand how extreme heat events will be different in the future. To look into the future, I use climate models. Climate models can give us a good idea about how extreme heat will change. However, climate models only tell us about physical aspects of the Earth, like temperature or humidity. I work to translate what climate models are telling us into impacts for humans.

My current project aims to understand how our capacity for activity might change during the hottest parts of the year. Physical activity is crucial for our health, well-being, and economy. Will it be too hot to safely run in the future? What about occupational labor, or even climbing stairs? Where will it be too hot to do these daily activities? What amount of global warming will it take to get to that point?

These questions are complicated by human diversity. Take, for example, diversity of age. As we age, we become more vulnerable to heat as our sweat glands degrade. Thus, while a 25-year-old might be safe to go for a run in hot conditions, the same run might be dangerous for even a healthy 65-year-old.

In Parsons et al (2026), my coauthors and I explored how humanity’s capacity for physical activity has already decreased since the mid-20th century. In ongoing work, I use climate models to explore how this capacity will continue decreasing as the climate changes. Both projects make use of the human heat balance model described in Vanos et al (2023).

This work is ongoing under the mentorship of Dr. Jane Baldwin and other collaborators.

While projections are useful for policy targets and planning, heat is impacting communities in the present. That's why I work with the UCI Community Geoscience Initiative (formerly CLIMATE Justice Initiative) and GREEN-MPNA. Together, we surveyed more than 300 Santa Ana residents in the summer of 2025 to understand local lived experiences with extreme heat. Our shared goal is to empower the local Santa Ana community to fight for the heat adaptations they need most.